Key Takeaways
- Intel (INTC) shares have climbed approximately 90% from their 12-month low and currently trade near $46, gaining 5.7% in recent trading.
- The chipmaker’s valuation stands at 112x earnings, with Wall Street forecasting EPS to approach double current levels by 2027.
- Financial projections show EBITDA expanding from $1.2B in 2024 to $25.1B in 2028.
- The company participated in a $350M financing round for AI chip developer SambaNova alongside establishing a long-term technical collaboration.
- Street consensus stands at “Reduce” with a $45.74 target price, despite recent rating improvements from multiple research firms.
Intel’s (INTC) share performance has been nothing short of impressive. From touching a yearly bottom near $17.67, shares have rebounded to approximately $46 — representing a roughly 90% surge that’s prompting questions about sustainability on Wall Street.
Shares advanced an additional 5.7% during Wednesday’s session, starting trading at $46.12.
For a semiconductor giant that struggled against competitors for years, this reversal has captured significant investor interest. However, the underlying fundamentals merit careful examination.
The stock currently carries a valuation of 112 times earnings, even when accounting for one-time adjustments. That represents a premium multiple for a chipmaker still recording negative net profit margins.
What justifies investor enthusiasm at this valuation? The answer lies in forward earnings expectations.
Wall Street forecasts full-year 2026 EPS at $0.48, representing 15% annual growth. That figure is anticipated to nearly double to approximately $1 by 2027. Some projections extend to $1.80.
Should these targets materialize, current buyers would be paying under 20 times projected 2028 earnings.
Intel exceeded Q4 expectations, delivering EPS of $0.15 versus the Street’s $0.08 estimate. Revenue reached $13.67 billion, topping the $13.37 billion consensus. The caveat: revenue declined 4.2% year over year.
Q1 2026 guidance proved conservative, with EPS projected flat and revenue expected in the $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion range. Management indicated supply constraints would peak in Q1 before easing throughout the year.
SambaNova Partnership Reinforces AI Strategy
A recent development: Intel participated in a $350 million investment round for AI-chip developer SambaNova and established a multiyear technical collaboration centered on AI inference capabilities. CEO Lip-Bu Tan maintains an investor position and board chair role at SambaNova — a connection that has generated discussion and examination.
This arrangement emerged after acquisition discussions reportedly collapsed. Currently, Intel maintains a financial investment and technical collaboration instead of outright ownership.
Broader industry momentum contributed as well. A major agreement between AMD and Meta boosted semiconductor stocks across the board, lifting Intel alongside industry peers.
Institutional Ownership Expanding
EverSource Wealth Advisors expanded its Intel holdings by 45.1% during Q3, acquiring 13,700 additional shares to reach 44,090 total shares, valued at approximately $1.48 million.
Norges Bank established a fresh position valued at roughly $1.58 billion. Vanguard expanded its holdings by 2.3%, now controlling more than 385 million shares worth $8.64 billion. Institutional holders collectively control 64.53% of outstanding shares.
Regarding insider activity, EVP David Zinsner purchased $249,985 worth of shares at $42.50 each in late January. EVP April Miller divested $981,000 worth at $49.05 in early February.
EBITDA projections show growth from $1.2 billion in 2024 to $25.1 billion by 2028 — a trajectory supporting much of the bullish thesis.
The 50-day moving average stands at $44.04, while the 200-day moving average rests at $37.00. Analyst consensus maintains a “Reduce” rating with a $45.74 price target. Five analysts assign Buy ratings, 26 recommend Hold, and six suggest Sell.
