TLDR
- Gold prices remained stable around $5,183 per ounce Thursday, trading within a tight band
- Rising US dollar strength and diminishing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts weighed on bullion
- Ongoing Middle East hostilities drove Brent crude temporarily over $100 per barrel, marking a nearly 60% year-to-date increase
- Gold exchange-traded fund holdings experienced their steepest weekly decline in more than two years as investors liquidated positions
- Silver gained more than 1.6% to reach $87.19; BMI analysts project silver will average $93 per ounce throughout 2026
The precious metal continues trading near all-time highs but has experienced reduced upward momentum following the outbreak of US-Israeli military action against Iran on February 28. Market participants are currently weighing safe-haven appetite against greenback appreciation and diminishing prospects for monetary policy easing.
Spot gold showed minimal movement at $5,183.39 per ounce during Thursday’s New York morning session. April-delivery US gold futures advanced 0.2% to $5,190.50. The yellow metal has accumulated approximately 20% gains year-to-date.
Middle Eastern hostilities represent the primary catalyst for prevailing market volatility. Thursday brought reports of two tankers engulfed in flames in Iraqi territorial waters, signaling what appears to be an intensification of Iranian strikes targeting regional energy assets.
Brent crude temporarily surged beyond the $100 per barrel threshold during Asian market hours. Petroleum prices have climbed nearly 60% throughout the current year. Elevated oil prices increase logistics and manufacturing expenses, contributing to broader inflationary pressures.
Bullion is traditionally viewed as an inflation protection vehicle. However, these same inflationary concerns are simultaneously diminishing market expectations for imminent Federal Reserve interest rate reductions. Elevated interest rates enhance the appeal of yield-generating instruments relative to non-yielding gold.
The American currency strengthened for its third consecutive session Thursday. Dollar appreciation increases gold costs for international purchasers transacting in alternative currencies, potentially dampening demand.
“Gold has been range bound recently. The higher dollar index, rising treasury yields and lack of interest rate cuts are the negative factors, but the conflict in the Middle East has been generating some safe-haven flows,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.
Gold ETF Holdings Drop
Notwithstanding stable pricing, holdings in gold exchange-traded funds contracted last week at the fastest pace witnessed in over two years. Market participants have been liquidating gold positions to generate liquidity for covering shortfalls in other portfolio segments.
Jeff Currie from Carlyle Group shared with Bloomberg Television his expectation for increased gold demand emerging from the current geopolitical crisis. He noted that emerging market purchasers are favoring gold over American assets to mitigate exposure to potential foreign reserve seizures, similar to actions taken against Russia in 2022.
Silver and Platinum Also Move Higher
Silver exceeded gold’s performance Thursday, advancing 1.6% to $87.19 per ounce. The white metal has surged more than 146% during 2025.
BMI analysts anticipate silver will average $93 per ounce throughout 2026. Their outlook suggests robust investment appetite will counterbalance softer demand from solar energy and jewelry sectors at elevated price points.
Spot platinum climbed 0.7% to $2,184.00. Palladium increased 1.6% to $1,666.70.
Recent data released Thursday indicated core US inflation remained subdued at year’s start. Nevertheless, prospective inflationary risks associated with Middle Eastern conflict prompted traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2025.
Blue Line Futures’ Streible noted that stabilization or decline in petroleum prices could alleviate pressure on treasury yields and the dollar, potentially propelling gold futures toward higher levels.
