Key Highlights
- First Solar (FSLR) shares declined approximately 15% following the announcement of 2026 revenue projections between $4.9B and $5.2B, significantly under the analyst consensus of roughly $6.16B.
- Fourth-quarter earnings landed at $4.84 per share, falling short of projections by 30 cents, while revenue exceeded expectations at $1.68B versus the anticipated $1.57B.
- The company achieved record fiscal 2025 net sales of $5.2B, representing an increase from the previous year’s $4.2B.
- Management forecasts tariff-related costs between $125M and $135M for 2026, while highlighting permitting bottlenecks and political headwinds from the current administration.
- Production at a new South Carolina finishing facility is scheduled to commence in Q4 2026, designed to enhance freight efficiency and meet domestic content standards.
Shares of First Solar tumbled approximately 15% midweek following the solar manufacturer’s disappointing revenue projections for 2026 that fell substantially short of Street expectations.
The company disclosed anticipated 2026 net sales ranging from $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion. This figure stands considerably below the consensus estimate of approximately $6.16 billion compiled by FactSet.
The significant shortfall triggered an immediate negative market reaction.
Regarding Q4 performance, First Solar delivered earnings of $4.84 per share, which came up 30 cents short of analyst projections. Meanwhile, quarterly revenue climbed 11% from the year-ago period to $1.68 billion, surpassing the Street’s $1.57 billion forecast.
Despite the revenue upside, the earnings shortfall combined with disappointing forward guidance triggered a sharp selloff.
The full-year fiscal 2025 performance told a more positive story. Net sales reached an all-time high of $5.2 billion, up from $4.2 billion the previous year, powered by increased module shipment volumes. Annual earnings totaled $14.21 per share.
Prior to Tuesday’s earnings release, FSLR shares had already retreated nearly 7% year-to-date, despite posting gains exceeding 55% over the trailing twelve-month period.
U.S. Policy Shifts Create Uncertainty
Management didn’t mince words about the challenges facing 2026 projections: the evolving political landscape in Washington.
First Solar indicated its guidance assumes the continuation of existing policies. The Trump administration has implemented new 15% tariffs on select imports for a 150-day period, layered on top of pre-existing aluminum and steel duties.
The solar manufacturer anticipates total tariff-related expenses ranging from $125 million to $135 million throughout the current year.
Permitting holdups and a suspension of major project greenlight processes under the current White House are creating additional challenges across the solar industry. The administration’s energy priorities have emphasized fossil fuels and nuclear power — marking a distinct departure from the renewable energy push during the Biden presidency.
Demand for First Solar’s Series 6 module — manufactured in Malaysia and Vietnam for utility-scale solar installations — faces constraints in this political climate.
Domestic Manufacturing Expansion to Mitigate Challenges
To reduce tariff vulnerability, First Solar is establishing a new finishing operation in South Carolina, scheduled to launch operations during Q4 2026.
This facility will utilize components manufactured at its Southeast Asian production sites while completing final assembly on U.S. soil, helping to reduce freight expenses, minimize tariff exposure, and satisfy domestic content mandates.
CEO Mark Widmar addressed the company’s strategy during this challenging period: “As we navigated a rapidly evolving environment, we maintained a disciplined approach to contracting and remained anchored in our core principle of pricing and delivery certainty.”
First Solar also brought a new Louisiana manufacturing plant online in 2025 and has committed to constructing an additional South Carolina facility.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Christopher Dendrinos characterized the disappointing 2026 guidance as a “clearing event” that may set the stage for volume growth in 2027 — assuming no further tariff escalations occur.
Citi analyst Vikram Bagri offered a straightforward assessment: “First Solar is well understood to be a 2027 story with several positive catalysts on the way.”
During premarket trading Wednesday, FSLR shares declined as much as 16.7%.
