TLDR
- Emanuel Fabian, an Israeli defense reporter, faced death threats from users attempting to manipulate his coverage of an Iranian missile attack
- A Polymarket prediction contract worth more than $17 million hinged on whether Iran struck Israeli territory on March 10
- Fabian maintained his original reporting and filed a complaint with law enforcement
- Polymarket removed the threatening users’ accounts and provided information to authorities
- The incident has intensified Congressional efforts to prohibit prediction markets based on warfare and political violence
A defense correspondent covering the Israeli military faced harassment and intimidation from users of the crypto prediction platform Polymarket following his reporting on an Iranian missile strike that occurred near Beit Shemesh on March 10, 2026.
Emanuel Fabian, who reports on military affairs for The Times of Israel, published an article stating that an Iranian projectile had impacted an unpopulated zone close to the city. His coverage became crucial to settling a massive $17 million wager on Polymarket regarding whether Iranian forces had successfully struck Israeli territory on that specific date.
The prediction market’s terms specified that the outcome would be affirmative if Iran executed a missile launch, drone operation, or aerial bombardment on Israeli land. However, an important stipulation stated that intercepted munitions would not qualify as a “yes” resolution.
Users who had placed bets on the negative outcome started reaching out to Fabian, attempting to coerce him into revising his published account to indicate the missile had been shot down mid-flight instead of making ground contact.
Fabian described receiving correspondence through email, telephone, and various messaging services demanding he alter his journalism.
A person using the name “Haim” transmitted threatening communications in Hebrew, warning Fabian he would experience harm he had “never imagined,” that he had created “enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable,” and threatening they would “finish” him.
This individual also revealed private information concerning Fabian’s relatives and residential area.
Fabian submitted a formal complaint to law enforcement, prompting an official inquiry.
Another journalist from a separate news organization informed Fabian that someone had contacted them proposing to split potential winnings if they could convince Fabian to modify his reporting.
Fabian rejected every attempt at manipulation and emphasized that his coverage was grounded in official communications from Israeli emergency response teams and defense establishment sources.
Polymarket Bans Accounts, Authorities Notified
Polymarket issued a public statement on X denouncing the conduct as “a violation of our Terms of Service” and confirmed it had terminated all associated accounts. The platform indicated it would provide user data to appropriate law enforcement agencies.
The Israeli Defense Forces subsequently verified that the missile that landed near Beit Shemesh had not been intercepted, corroborating Fabian’s initial journalism.
US Lawmakers Move to Restrict War-Linked Prediction Markets
The incident has intensified ongoing discussions in the United States Congress regarding prediction markets connected to armed conflict and international security events.
Senator Adam Schiff alongside Representative Mike Levin have put forward the “Death Bets Act,” legislation that would prohibit prediction market contracts connected to warfare, political assassinations, or loss of life.
Senator Chris Murphy has independently suggested prohibiting contracts related to military operations conducted by the government after blockchain intelligence company Bubblemaps identified digital wallets that generated approximately $1 million wagering on American military strikes against Iran immediately prior to their execution.
Polymarket has also recently deleted a contract permitting speculation on whether nuclear weapons would be deployed during the current year following public backlash.
Despite mounting criticism, transaction activity keeps expanding. Kalshi processed approximately $10.4 billion in transactions during February 2026. Polymarket handled roughly $7.9 billion throughout the identical period.
The dual platforms are collectively trending toward achieving a seventh straight monthly record of approximately $20 billion in combined transaction volume.
