Contents
Key Takeaways
- Circle Internet (CRCL) shares momentarily touched $90 before stabilizing around $87, following approximately 30% gains post-earnings Wednesday
- Fourth quarter 2025 earnings per share reached $0.43, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.35; total revenue climbed to $770 million, marking 77% annual growth
- Bernstein maintained its Outperform stance with a $190 price objective, characterizing performance as a “clear divergence from crypto”
- Mizuho upgraded its price objective from $77 to $90 while maintaining Neutral, citing interest-rate reduction concerns
- William Blair and Clear Street both published optimistic assessments; Clear Street lifted its target from $85 to $92
Shares of Circle Internet Group briefly exceeded $90 on Thursday before pulling back to approximately $87.
The rally followed Wednesday’s approximately 30% jump triggered by impressive fourth-quarter financial results.
Fourth Quarter Performance
Circle delivered Q4 2025 earnings per share of $0.43, exceeding analyst consensus of $0.35 by roughly 23%. Total revenue reached $770 million, representing 77% year-over-year expansion.
These results captured Wall Street’s attention, prompting several analysts to reassess their outlook with varying degrees of optimism.
Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform designation and maintained a $190 price objective. The firm characterized the quarter as demonstrating a “clear divergence from crypto,” highlighting improved transaction revenue and expanding blockchain rewards stemming from Circle’s super validator position on the Canton network.
A notable metric highlighted by Bernstein: USDC maintained directly on Circle’s infrastructure increased to 17% of aggregate supply during Q4, climbing from 14% in the previous quarter.
Management guidance indicates USDC circulation should grow at a 40% compound annual rate, while alternative revenue streams are projected to reach $170 million in 2026, versus $110 million recorded in 2025.
Divergent Analyst Perspectives on Potential
Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins lifted their price objective from $77 to $90 while retaining a Neutral designation.
They highlighted prediction platforms like Polymarket as a “visible, scaled USDC use case,” driving substantial transaction activity that bolsters both revenue generation and reserve holdings. Company leadership identified Polymarket as a significant contributor to recent USDC expansion.
Mizuho also observed that “agentic AI” — autonomous software agents utilizing internet-native currency — represents a potential long-term catalyst for USDC adoption, although current transaction volumes remain modest.
However, the firm cautioned that prospective interest-rate reductions pose a risk. Reserve income continues to constitute the majority of Circle’s revenue, meaning rate decreases would negatively impact that segment.
Additional Analyst Commentary
William Blair reaffirmed an Outperform designation and suggested long-term investors should consider accumulating positions.
The firm views USDC as positioned to become the leading commerce-oriented stablecoin, supported by 100% fiat backing, regulatory adherence, and network effects. William Blair referenced an estimated $20 trillion cross-border B2B payment marketplace as the ultimate opportunity, while acknowledging limited visibility regarding full market penetration timing.
Wall Street consensus projects 62% revenue expansion for Circle during the current fiscal year.
Clear Street increased its price objective from $85 to $92 while maintaining a Hold designation, pointing to enhanced fundamentals following the “strong” quarterly performance.
Circle currently trades around $81.88 with a market capitalization of $14.45 billion, though shares remain approximately 51% below their peak from six months ago.
According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains a cash position exceeding its debt obligations.
Bernstein identified Circle’s Arc offering, the Circle Payments Network, and emerging agentic payments functionality as key product expansion areas heading into 2026.
