Quick Overview
- Bitcoin declined approximately 3% over the week, retreating from $76,000 to stabilize near $70,000
- The Fed maintained current interest rates while projecting just one rate reduction in 2026, dampening risk sentiment
- Citi reduced its Bitcoin price projection from $143,000 down to $112,000 due to regulatory roadblocks
- Strategy accumulated an additional 22,337 BTC, pushing total reserves to 761,068 BTC
- Morgan Stanley submitted an updated S-1 filing for a physical Bitcoin ETF with the proposed ticker MSBT
Bitcoin began the week with strong performance, reaching $76,000 on Tuesday — marking its strongest position since the beginning of February. However, this upward trajectory proved short-lived.
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate range at 3.50%–3.75% during Wednesday’s policy meeting, marking the second consecutive session without adjustment. Chair Jerome Powell expressed concerns that escalating tensions involving Iran could exacerbate inflationary pressures, diminishing prospects for monetary easing this year. Updated Fed projections now anticipate a single rate reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, while elevating the PCE inflation forecast to 2.7%.
This more restrictive outlook pressured speculative assets across markets. Bitcoin dipped beneath $69,000 on Thursday before stabilizing around $70,843 by Friday — representing a weekly decline approaching 3%.
Central Bank Positioning Pressures Markets
Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, observed that the Fed adjusted upward its projections for both inflation and economic expansion. She characterized the press conference as heavily centered on inflation concerns, with an overall “rather hawkish” delivery.
Escalating oil prices, sparked by Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas infrastructure, intensified market pressures. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, commented: “Increasing energy expenses, postponed monetary easing timelines, and a strengthening dollar are fostering a more discriminating investment climate.”
The $70,000 threshold has emerged as the critical support level. Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev suggested that maintaining this level “invites a stabilization trade,” whereas breaking below it “reopens the path toward the next support cluster.”
Wall Street Lowers Expectations as Legislation Faces Obstacles
Citi analyst Alex Saunders revised his Bitcoin price projection downward to $112,000 from the previous $143,000 target. This adjustment stems from the Clarity Act — proposed cryptocurrency market structure legislation — encountering roadblocks in Congress. Polymarket odds for passage this year have declined to 60%, falling from approximately 90% in February.
President Trump shared on Truth Social: “The U.S. needs to get market structure done, ASAP. Americans should earn more money on their money.”
Despite the week’s negative price action, Strategy’s Michael Saylor revealed on Monday that the company acquired an additional 22,337 BTC. The firm’s aggregate holdings have reached 761,068 BTC, purchased at an average cost basis of $75,696.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows demonstrated volatility throughout the week. Monday and Tuesday recorded inflows totaling $201 million and $199 million respectively, followed by withdrawals of $163 million and $90 million on Wednesday and Thursday.
Separately, technical analysis highlighted by crypto account CryptoBullet identified a rising wedge formation on BTC charts, suggesting a potential downside target approaching $50,000 should the pattern confirm with a breakdown.
Morgan Stanley submitted a second amended S-1 registration statement with the SEC for a physical Bitcoin ETF, planned for listing on NYSE Arca under the ticker symbol MSBT. Approval would establish it as the first spot BTC ETF launched directly by a leading American banking institution.
