Key Highlights
- Clinical trials for Amgen’s MariTide GLP-1 therapy demonstrated approximately 20% weight reduction, rivaling Eli Lilly’s Zepbound performance
- Future development could transform MariTide into a quarterly injection, advancing beyond its current monthly administration schedule
- Truist Securities upgraded AMGN price target to $325 from $319, keeping a Hold recommendation
- Truist projects Q1 2026 revenues at $9.18 billion, significantly exceeding Wall Street’s $8.58 billion estimate
- Market watchers believe AMGN could climb back to its $388 peak, representing an 11% upside from present levels
Shares of Amgen have surged 25% from April 2025, modestly underperforming the S&P 500’s 29% advance during the identical timeframe. The biotechnology giant currently commands a $186.4 billion market capitalization and trades at approximately 15 times forward earnings, positioned near the top of its historical five-year valuation band.
The pharmaceutical company’s experimental GLP-1 therapy MariTide has captured significant Wall Street interest. Clinical participants achieved approximately 20% body weight reduction, positioning the drug as a viable competitor to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which produces weight loss in the low-to-mid 20% territory. MariTide’s results also surpass those of Lilly’s oral medication Foundayo, which generated roughly 12% weight reduction in clinical studies.
During January’s JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, Amgen executives revealed MariTide’s potential evolution into a quarterly injection regimen. This advancement would improve upon the current monthly administration protocol and provide a substantial competitive advantage over Zepbound’s weekly injection requirement.
Capturing GLP-1 market leadership isn’t necessary for Amgen to deliver meaningful growth. JPMorgan research teams project the comprehensive GLP-1 sector could reach $200 billion annually by decade’s end. Even a modest $5 billion in MariTide sales would increase Amgen’s total revenue by approximately 13%, calculated against analyst projections of $37.8 billion for fiscal 2026.
Phase 3 clinical data for MariTide should arrive in early 2027. Historically, analysts progressively increase revenue forecasts as pivotal trial readouts approach, transitioning from cautious risk-adjusted models to more optimistic projections.
Truist Raises Target, Anticipates Q1 Outperformance
Truist Securities boosted its AMGN price objective to $325 from $319 earlier this week while maintaining a Hold designation. The investment bank anticipates first-quarter 2026 revenue reaching $9.18 billion compared to Street consensus of $8.58 billion, alongside non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.24 versus the $4.77 consensus figure.
Truist’s first-quarter projections exceed consensus across multiple key franchises: Repatha ($874 million), Prolia ($878 million), Evenity ($598 million), and Tezspire ($487 million). The firm additionally elevated its extended-term Krystexxa forecasts following enhanced patent protections extending through 2040.
Truist increased its probability-of-success assessment for MariTide, highlighting an improved commercially attractive profile within obesity therapeutics.
Robust Foundation Supports Growth Narrative
Separate from GLP-1 opportunities, Amgen’s established portfolio continues delivering results. Fourth-quarter sales exceeded projections, while earnings surpassed forecasts by nearly 12%. Leadership has beaten earnings expectations in 17 of the previous 20 reporting periods. Overall revenue growth is projected at just under 3% for 2026, supported by multiple recently launched products in their early commercial phases.
Amgen completed a $4 billion debt refinancing at reduced interest rates recently. This restructuring caps future financing expenses, potentially allowing MariTide-driven revenue gains to translate more efficiently into bottom-line expansion.
Cantor Fitzgerald maintains a Neutral stance with a $350 valuation target. William Blair reaffirmed its Outperform rating after encouraging Phase 3 outcomes for TEPEZZA, Amgen’s thyroid eye disease treatment, which achieved a 77% proptosis response versus 19.6% for placebo.
AMGN’s all-time peak of $388, reached earlier this year, sits approximately 11% higher than current price levels.
