Key Takeaways
- ARWR received an Overweight upgrade from Morgan Stanley with a new price target of $100, increased from $78
- Plozasiran Phase 3 results in severe hypertriglyceridemia are anticipated in the third quarter of 2026
- Bank of America has also lifted its target, projecting approximately $3 billion in peak revenue for the treatment
- Morgan Stanley’s revised peak sales forecast for plozasiran climbed to $3.2 billion from $1.7 billion
- Shares have surged 8.2% in 2026 and an impressive 481% over the trailing twelve months
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) has delivered extraordinary returns to investors, posting a 481% gain over the past year. The biotech continued its momentum on Tuesday with a 3.9% advance, finishing at $71.92 following a bullish upgrade and increased price target from Morgan Stanley.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc., ARWR
The new $100 price objective suggests roughly 39% additional upside from recent trading levels. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Ulz elevated his rating on the shares to Overweight from Equal-weight, pointing to forthcoming Phase 3 trial results that he believes will “unlock a multibillion-dollar opportunity that remains underappreciated.”
The key driver behind this optimism is plozasiran, Arrowhead’s flagship therapeutic candidate currently in development for patients diagnosed with severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG) — a metabolic disorder characterized by dangerously elevated triglyceride levels that increase cardiovascular and pancreatitis risks.
Top-line Phase 3 findings are slated for release during the third quarter of 2026. Drawing on earlier-stage data and studies involving similar patient cohorts, Ulz indicated he anticipates favorable outcomes. A successful readout would represent a pivotal milestone in the company’s evolution.
Morgan Stanley wasn’t acting in isolation with its bullish stance. BofA has similarly increased its price objective, estimating plozasiran could capture a peak market valued at roughly $3 billion within the SHTG indication — signaling growing analyst conviction around the drug’s commercial viability.
Ulz’s personal peak sales projection jumped from $1.7 billion to $3.2 billion. This substantial revision—almost a doubling—reflects heightened expectations regarding the drug’s potential addressable market, particularly among high-risk patients prone to acute pancreatitis episodes.
Facing Off Against Ionis
Arrowhead doesn’t have the SHTG market to itself. Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) is pursuing the same patient population with its therapy olezarsen. Ulz noted that Ionis “has set the price” benchmark within this therapeutic category.
Currently, olezarsen holds approval exclusively for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, though it carries Breakthrough Therapy designation. A supplemental filing is presently under accelerated regulatory review, with a decision deadline of June 30.
Regardless of the competitive landscape, Ulz maintains there’s sufficient market opportunity for multiple players. He emphasized that plozasiran possesses compelling standalone merit, particularly in serving the pancreatitis patient subset.
Regulatory Milestones and Development Pipeline
Arrowhead submitted its inaugural New Drug Application for plozasiran in the closing months of 2024. This regulatory filing represented a strategic inflection point for the organization — transitioning from a research-driven biotech toward establishing commercial operations.
The enterprise has extensive expertise in RNA interference technology. It acquired Roche’s RNAi portfolio in 2011, followed by absorbing RNAi programs from Novartis in 2015. Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen division maintained a collaboration through 2023, when Janssen restructured its infectious disease and vaccine development priorities.
Among the 12 analyst firms monitored by FactSet that provide coverage on ARWR, 10 assign Buy ratings or their equivalent. Only two firms — Leerink Partners and Bernstein Research — maintain Hold recommendations.
ARWR has appreciated 8.2% since the start of 2026. By contrast, Ionis has declined 6.2% year-to-date while posting a 156% gain over the preceding twelve-month period.
The company currently commands a market capitalization of $9.94 billion.
