TLDR
- Brent benchmark declined more than 1% to $94.44 following Monday’s 5.6% surge, after Tehran confirmed delegation to Pakistan negotiations
- Washington’s ceasefire arrangement with Tehran concludes Wednesday, with Trump indicating extension remains “highly unlikely”
- Strait of Hormuz transit continues at virtual standstill, eliminating approximately 20% of worldwide petroleum supply
- Riyadh and Abu Dhabi redirecting crude through backup export facilities, pushing joint capacity to 6.5 million barrels daily
- Citigroup projects crude could surge to $110 per barrel should Hormuz obstruction persist another 30 days
Crude benchmarks retreated Tuesday following Tehran’s indication that it would dispatch representatives to diplomatic discussions with Washington in Islamabad, Pakistan. This development emerged despite Iranian leadership publicly rejecting additional diplomatic engagement.
Brent benchmark petroleum declined up to 1.1% reaching $94.44 per barrel, reversing course after Monday’s 5.6% rally. West Texas Intermediate decreased 0.9% to $86.68 per barrel during Asian trading sessions.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, stated the nation would refuse negotiations “under the shadow of threats” emanating from Washington. However, a Wall Street Journal article revealed Tehran had confidentially informed regional intermediaries of plans to dispatch a delegation to Pakistan within days.
⚡️JUST IN: IRAN WILLING TO NEGOTIATE A DEAL
Iran will send negotiators to Pakistan on Tuesday for second-round US talks led by Vice President JD Vance, per WSJ. pic.twitter.com/9QvNkAf3cO
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) April 20, 2026
The identity of who will head Iran’s negotiating team remains undisclosed.
JD Vance, the Vice President, is en route to continue diplomatic discussions, anticipated to commence either late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Trump stated Sunday that extending the ceasefire beyond Wednesday evening Washington time is “highly unlikely.”
Trump additionally verified that America’s naval enforcement against Iran will continue operating until a comprehensive peace agreement materializes. The U.S. Navy intercepted an Iranian maritime vessel during the weekend, triggering Tehran’s decision to reimpose restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz Transit Continues Paralysis
The Strait of Hormuz has experienced an effective blockade since hostilities commenced in late February. Tehran temporarily lifted restrictions over the weekend before reinstating closure.
Just three maritime vessels made transit attempts through the strait early Tuesday. The strategic waterway typically facilitates approximately one-fifth of global crude oil supplies.
ANZ market analysts observed that the “ongoing uncertainty continues to overshadow any peace agreement” given Tehran’s hesitance to resume diplomatic engagement.
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have initiated shipment diversification strategies to circumvent Hormuz. Alternative routes now utilize the Yanbu export terminal along the Red Sea and Fujairah’s facility on the Gulf of Oman. Joint loading operations at these alternative terminals have escalated to 6.5 million barrels daily, compared to 5.0 million preceding the conflict.
What Analysts Are Saying
Citigroup forecasts petroleum prices potentially climbing to $110 per barrel should the Hormuz disruption extend another month.
Fatih Birol, the International Energy Agency’s executive director, cautioned that worldwide energy markets could experience volatility extending up to two years stemming from the ongoing conflict.
Dilin Wu, Pepperstone’s research strategist, indicated markets will remain “super sensitive to any headline updates in the next 24 hours.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping advocated for an immediate cessation of hostilities and restoration of standard Hormuz operations Monday, during a telephone conversation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
As of Tuesday morning, no verified second negotiating session between Washington and Tehran had been confirmed, with the ceasefire deadline maintaining its Wednesday evening timeframe.
