Key Highlights
- BTC surged past $72,000 following Netanyahu’s announcement of Lebanon ceasefire discussions
- Bitcoin has climbed 9% in the last 30 days, contrasting with a 12% decline in the iShares Tech-Software ETF
- February’s PCE inflation registered 2.8% year-over-year, matching analyst predictions
- Fourth quarter US GDP underwent a downward revision to 0.5% annualized, intensifying recession worries
- Friday’s March CPI release — representing the first inflation measurement post-US-Iran conflict — is anticipated to show an increase
Bitcoin’s price climbed beyond the $72,000 threshold on Thursday, driven by encouraging developments in Middle Eastern diplomatic relations. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, instructed his cabinet to initiate ceasefire discussions with Lebanon concerning Hezbollah’s disarmament. This announcement triggered a market reversal in what was previously trending as a bearish session for digital assets.
The leading cryptocurrency experienced an approximate 3% surge following the announcement, touching $72,300. Equity markets in the United States also bounced back, with the Nasdaq advancing 0.65%. West Texas Intermediate crude prices retreated from nearly $103 per barrel to approximately $98.60 in response to the diplomatic news.
Among major digital currencies, Bitcoin demonstrated superior performance. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP each registered increases below 1%, while BTC maintained its momentum.
Prior to the geopolitical announcement, February’s PCE inflation metrics aligned with market expectations. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index increased 2.8% on a year-over-year basis, while the core PCE measure moderated to 3%, declining from January’s 3.1% reading.
BREAKING: February PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, was unchanged at 2.8%, in-line expectations of 2.8%.
Core PCE inflation falls to 3.0%, in-line with expectations of 3.0%.
This marks the final pre-Iran War PCE inflation datapoint.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 9, 2026
Bitcoin’s recovery had already commenced before the ceasefire announcement materialized, climbing from a session low of $70,500 to approximately $71,200 after the inflation statistics were published.
An important consideration is that February’s PCE data represents the timeframe preceding the late-February commencement of the US-Iran military engagement. Market participants and economists are anticipating more recent data to gauge the conflict’s impact on consumer prices.
Diverging Paths: Bitcoin and Technology Software Equities
Bitcoin and software sector stocks have exhibited contrasting trajectories throughout the past month. While the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has declined 12% over the 30-day window, BTC has appreciated 9% during the identical timeframe.
The 20-day correlation coefficient measuring the relationship between Bitcoin and IGV has fallen to 0.34, illustrating a pronounced divergence in asset performance.
Federal Reserve Maintains Position as Economic Slowdown Concerns Mount
Fourth quarter GDP figures for the United States underwent a downward adjustment to a 0.5% annualized growth rate, signaling decelerating economic expansion. Paradoxically, market participants reduced risk aversion, partially because economic weakness increases the likelihood of governmental liquidity measures.
Wednesday’s release of FOMC minutes revealed Federal Reserve policymakers maintain receptiveness to interest rate reductions during the current year, although a majority indicated they would contemplate rate increases should inflation remain substantially above the 2% objective. According to CME FedWatch data, there exists a 98.4% probability of unchanged rates at the upcoming April 29 Federal Reserve meeting.
Bitcoin has benefited from US dollar weakness, as diminished confidence in the Federal Reserve’s inflation control strategy typically favors scarce asset classes.
Friday brings the scheduled publication of March CPI data. Analyst consensus projects a 3.3% year-over-year increase, rising from February’s 2.4% figure, representing the inaugural inflation measurement following the onset of the US-Iran conflict.
