TLDR
- Brent crude surged 4% to approximately $99 per barrel; WTI jumped above the $100 threshold
- The Strait of Hormuz continues operating at minimal capacity, permitting only four vessels on Wednesday
- Tehran is implementing a fee structure, imposing charges on ships navigating the waterway
- Iranian officials claim Washington breached the truce agreement; Israel’s Lebanon operations remain a central point of contention
- Goldman Sachs and UBS project Brent at $80 for Q4, though both acknowledge significant upward price pressures
Energy markets experienced sharp gains on Thursday as the fragile US-Iran truce appeared to unravel while vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely restricted.
Brent crude futures surged 4% to approximately $98.57 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate jumped 6.6% to break above the $100 per barrel mark. Both benchmarks had experienced significant declines on Wednesday following Tuesday’s ceasefire declaration.
The market reversal occurred as evidence mounted that the ceasefire agreement was not being implemented as anticipated.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, declared on X that the US-Iran framework agreement “has been openly and clearly violated.” He cited Israel’s ongoing Lebanon strikes and American drones penetrating Iranian airspace as evidence that continued negotiations had become “unreasonable.”
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 8, 2026
Tehran provides support to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iranian officials have maintained that any cessation of hostilities must encompass Lebanon. However, the White House maintains its agreement with Iran excludes Lebanon from its scope.
Israeli forces targeted over 100 locations in Lebanon on Wednesday alone, representing one of the campaign’s most intensive operational days. The Israeli Defense Forces have maintained operations despite international pressure for de-escalation.
Hormuz Strait Restrictions Drive Energy Market Rally
The Strait of Hormuz facilitates approximately 20% of global oil supply. The waterway has operated at minimal capacity since the ceasefire announcement late Tuesday.
Just four vessels transited the strait on Wednesday, based on S&P Global Market Intelligence data. This figure represents a fraction of typical daily traffic. A single oil tanker completed the passage during the past 24-hour period, Reuters confirmed.
Tehran has informed mediators it will restrict crossings to approximately a dozen vessels daily while imposing transit fees. Several sources indicate the charge may reach $1 per barrel. Capital Economics characterized this transformation of the strait from an unrestricted international waterway to a regulated toll passage.
Dr. Sultan Al-Jaber, leading Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, stated on LinkedIn: “The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled.”
Over 400 vessels remain stalled in the area, according to vessel-tracking service MarineTraffic.
Washington Threatens Military Response if Agreement Collapses
Vice President JD Vance declared Wednesday evening that should the strait fail to commence reopening, the US would “not going to abide by our terms if the Iranians are not abiding by their terms.”
President Trump posted on Truth Social Thursday morning that American military forces would maintain their Middle East presence “until such time as the real agreement is fully complied with.” He cautioned that should Iran fail to fulfill its obligations, “the ‘shootin’ starts.”
Trump additionally confirmed in another post that Washington and Tehran have reached an understanding that the strait would operate openly and securely.
Goldman Sachs researchers indicated they anticipate energy shipments beginning recovery this weekend, projecting a gradual month-long restoration to pre-conflict export volumes. They maintained their Q4 Brent projection at $80 per barrel while highlighting upward risk factors. Should the strait remain closed an additional month, prices could average $100 during Q4. If Gulf producers cannot fully restore production capacity, prices might reach $115.
UBS similarly projected $80 Brent for Q4, though emphasized unresolved critical issues, including whether Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE would risk sending tankers through a strait now under Iranian authority. These two nations have a combined 4 million barrels daily of shuttered production.
American and Iranian negotiators are scheduled to convene in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday.
