Key Takeaways
- Bernstein initiates coverage on Figure Technology (FIGR) with Outperform rating and $67 price target, implying nearly 100% upside from current ~$32 level.
- March loan originations reached $1.2 billion, marking a 33% sequential increase and the first time monthly volume surpassed $1 billion.
- First quarter originations totaled $2.9 billion, representing more than a doubling from the prior year period and implying ~$12 billion annualized run rate.
- Shares have declined over 20% this year despite strengthening operational metrics.
- The firm’s valuation framework applies ~25x expected 2027 EBITDA, a premium to typical digital asset sector multiples.
Figure Technology (FIGR) emerged as a focal point for Bernstein analysts this week, with the firm initiating coverage in a bullish note that suggests significant upside potential from present levels.
Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock, FIGR
The investment bank launched coverage with an Outperform rating alongside a $67 price objective — representing roughly 100% appreciation from the stock’s current trading level near $32.
Bernstein’s investment thesis for Figure centers on accelerating momentum in its lending operations. March delivered a breakthrough month with $1.2 billion in loan originations, representing a 33% sequential gain from February and marking the first instance of monthly volume exceeding the $1 billion threshold.
The first quarter delivered $2.9 billion in total originations, more than doubling the comparable year-ago figure. This performance proved particularly notable given it occurred during a traditionally softer period for home equity line of credit activity.
The company’s current trajectory implies an annualized origination volume approaching $12 billion.
Figure’s primary offering consists of home equity credit lines, enabling property owners to access capital secured by their homes at rates typically below those available through unsecured borrowing. The company processes these transactions via the Provenance blockchain network, which it claims reduces costs by 117 basis points per loan versus conventional lending channels.
Tokenization Platform Powers Growth Strategy
The blockchain foundation forms a critical element of Bernstein’s investment case. Figure operates beyond traditional lending, maintaining a tokenized credit marketplace and deploying its YLDS stablecoin as components of an integrated financial ecosystem.
Bernstein’s valuation model applies approximately 25 times anticipated 2027 EBITDA. This premium to standard digital asset company trading multiples reflects Figure’s hybrid positioning as both a blockchain tokenization infrastructure provider and an active lending operation.
The analyst note attributes recent expansion to increasing consumer credit appetite and a broadening distribution partner base.
Share Price Disconnected From Operating Performance
A disconnect has emerged between operational momentum and market performance. FIGR shares have retreated more than 20% since January, caught in broader weakness affecting digital asset-related equities.
The stock has also failed to sustain momentum following its September Nasdaq listing, which initially assigned the company a valuation approaching $800 million.
Fourth quarter results demonstrated revenue and earnings expansion, though profitability metrics fell short of analyst projections — a shortfall that continues to weigh on investor sentiment.
Bernstein acknowledges material risk factors in its analysis. Home equity credit demand exhibits sensitivity to refinancing activity, creating vulnerability to interest rate fluctuations. Additionally, the private credit sector, which represents a key growth avenue for Figure, has experienced recent headwinds.
The $2.9 billion quarterly origination figure marks Figure’s most robust three-month performance to date.
