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Key Takeaways
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) delivered 38% revenue expansion to $601.8 million in 2025, supported by a $1.85 billion backlog
- An $816 million Space Development Agency award strengthened Rocket Lab’s position in government contracts
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) generated $70.9 million in 2025 revenue while advancing its commercial satellite constellation
- AST commands over $3.9 billion in pro forma liquidity for continued satellite launches
- Analysts favor Rocket Lab with a Moderate Buy rating while AST faces a Reduce consensus
Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) represent two of the space industry’s most closely watched publicly traded companies. However, these organizations pursue fundamentally distinct strategies and carry markedly different investment risk characteristics. One has established a proven, multi-faceted operation. The other is pursuing a transformative vision that could revolutionize global mobile communications.
Rocket Lab delivered impressive financial performance throughout 2025. The company achieved 38% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $601.8 million. Its fourth quarter set a company record with $179.7 million in sales. Perhaps most significantly, Rocket Lab closed the year with a $1.85 billion contract backlog—a 73% increase from twelve months prior. This substantial backlog provides more revenue visibility than most competitors in the commercial space sector can demonstrate.
The organization has successfully expanded far beyond its launch services origins. In 2025, Rocket Lab generated $371.6 million from product sales and $230.2 million from services. Today, the company manufactures complete spacecraft, sophisticated components, and integrated systems primarily for defense and intelligence agencies.
Government Contracts Provide Rocket Lab with Revenue Predictability
Rocket Lab secured a substantial $816 million agreement with the Space Development Agency. This milestone contract validates the company’s credibility for high-value, multi-year defense programs. Meanwhile, development of its Neutron medium-class launch vehicle continues, representing what management considers the next significant catalyst for expansion.
Despite operational progress, profitability remains elusive. Rocket Lab recorded a net loss of $198.2 million during 2025. Leadership has indicated expectations for continued negative adjusted EBITDA in 2026’s opening quarter. The investment thesis depends on anticipated operating leverage rather than present earnings.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) pursues an entirely different mission. The organization is constructing a satellite network designed to deliver cellular broadband directly to unmodified smartphones—eliminating the need for specialized equipment. Successful execution at commercial scale could unlock connectivity in underserved regions worldwide that conventional satellite systems cannot economically address.
AST remains in the early phases of this ambitious buildout. The company reported $70.9 million in total 2025 revenue. Fourth-quarter results accounted for $54.3 million, primarily from gateway equipment sales, mobile network operator partnerships, and government-related achievements.
AST SpaceMobile’s Financial Reserves Support Deployment Timeline
The company disclosed $2.8 billion in cash and equivalents as of year-end 2025. Following supplementary capital raises completed in early 2026, pro forma liquidity exceeded $3.9 billion. This war chest provides AST substantial runway to continue satellite constellation deployment without near-term funding pressure.
AST has secured more than $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments from strategic partners. For a company just beginning commercial operations, this represents significant commercial validation. Nevertheless, AST continues to burn cash significantly, and ultimate success hinges critically on deployment velocity and network reliability.
Wall Street sentiment clearly distinguishes between these opportunities. Rocket Lab carries a Moderate Buy consensus based on 2 Strong Buy ratings, 7 Buy ratings, 7 Hold ratings, and 1 Sell rating. AST SpaceMobile shows a Reduce consensus with 2 Buy ratings, 6 Hold ratings, and 3 Sell ratings.
Investment Implications
Analyst comfort levels reflect Rocket Lab’s established business model and operational track record. AST’s potential upside is acknowledged as substantial but considerably harder to quantify given current development stage.
Rocket Lab represents the more mature enterprise with superior revenue scale, business diversification, and analyst endorsement. AST SpaceMobile constitutes the higher-risk proposition with potentially transformative returns if its space-based broadband architecture succeeds.
Rocket Lab offers the more solid foundation today. AST SpaceMobile presents the more audacious vision. The appropriate choice depends entirely on individual risk tolerance and investment timeframe.
