Contents
Key Takeaways
- AppLovin shares climbed 2.21% to $406.80 in premarket Wednesday, attempting to recover after a 40.93% year-to-date decline.
- A tech sector rally spurred by reduced Middle East geopolitical risks provided positive momentum across markets.
- Evercore ISI’s 10 industry interviews with user acquisition professionals suggest the stock’s downturn doesn’t align with operational strength.
- 80% of surveyed contacts anticipate increasing their AppLovin user acquisition spending over the coming 6 to 12 months.
- Technical indicators remain challenged — APP trades 26.9% beneath its 100-day moving average with RSI at 40.80 and negative MACD readings.
AppLovin shares showed signs of recovery during Wednesday’s premarket session, climbing 2.21% to reach $406.80 following a challenging period that saw the stock tumble approximately 41% from January’s opening levels.
The premarket gains aligned with broader technology sector strength, as Nasdaq futures advanced 1.10% and S&P 500 futures rose 0.80% in early Wednesday trading. Market sentiment improved following indications of de-escalating tensions in the Middle East.
President Donald Trump indicated the United States might conclude its military operations in the region “within two or three weeks.” Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed willingness to pursue peace negotiations, contingent upon receiving security assurances. The White House announced Trump would deliver a national address at 9:00 p.m. ET Wednesday.
Regarding monetary policy, market expectations remained stable. The CME FedWatch tool indicated a 99.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates through April. Economist Jeremy Siegel recommended investors adopt a cautious approach until energy market conditions stabilize.
Industry Feedback Contradicts Stock Performance
Notwithstanding the significant stock depreciation, Evercore ISI analyst Robert Coolbrith concluded the market reaction appears excessive when measured against field intelligence.
Between March 18 and March 30, Evercore conducted comprehensive discussions with 10 user acquisition operators — key decision-makers representing game publishers, development studios, and gaming-focused advertising agencies spanning North America, Europe, and the MENA region. These participants collectively oversee approximately $1.9 billion in annual user acquisition expenditures.
Eighty percent of respondents indicated plans to increase AppLovin‘s portion of their UA spending allocations within the next 6 to 12 months. Among these eight contacts, three projected wallet share increases of 3 to 5 percentage points. Two additional participants suggested AppLovin’s budget allocation should already be 10 to 15 points higher based purely on return on advertiser spend metrics.
Multiple contacts highlighted late Q4 product modifications as beneficial developments. One operator mentioned adjustments to retargeting windows, while three others specifically referenced “creative clustering” as a significant improvement.
Recent Product Updates Continue Influencing Spending Decisions
Earlier 2025 platform enhancements are continuing to reshape budget distributions. Half of the surveyed contacts reported that transitioning campaign objectives from CPI to CPM has enhanced budget utilization and campaign expansion capabilities. Four participants noted the shift from D7 to D28 optimization as an ongoing advantage. Two of these contacts expressed interest in seeing AppLovin extend optimization windows further to D60.
Coolbrith maintained his Outperform rating alongside a $750 price target for the shares.
Chart Analysis Shows Continued Weakness
From a technical perspective, APP faces significant headwinds. The stock currently trades 11.2% below its 20-day moving average and 26.9% beneath its 100-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index registers 40.80 — indicating neutral territory with bearish undertones. The MACD indicator sits at -19.09, positioned below its signal line.
APP’s 52-week trading range spans from $200.50 to $745.61. Resistance appears at $473.50, while support is identified at $366.50. Despite the 2025 decline, the stock maintains a 40.79% gain over the trailing 12-month period.
Coolbrith’s $750 price objective implies an 84% upside from Wednesday’s premarket trading level.
