Key Takeaways
- GF Securities increased Broadcom (AVGO) price target to $450 following upward revisions to Google TPU shipment forecasts
- Revised TPU shipment projections now anticipate 4.5M units by 2026 and 7.9M by 2027, compared to previous 6M estimate
- Ironwood and Sunfish chips from Broadcom remain the sole products currently available for client evaluation
- CEO Hock Tan indicated visibility toward exceeding $100B in AI-related revenue by 2027
- Wall Street analysts contend the $100B projection may be understated, with potential reaching $180B–$200B
Broadcom (AVGO) was changing hands at $320.55, gaining 0.71%, during Wednesday’s morning session.
Broadcom is capturing renewed investor interest following GF Securities’ price target upgrade and growing analyst skepticism that the semiconductor giant’s $100B AI revenue projection for 2027 significantly undershoots reality.
GF Securities analyst Alicia Xia elevated her price target for Broadcom to $450 from a previous level, maintaining her Buy recommendation. The upward adjustment followed Xia’s decision to increase her Google TPU shipment projections.
Her updated forecast anticipates aggregate TPU volumes reaching 4.5M units in 2026 and climbing to 7.9M in 2027. The 2027 projection represents a substantial increase from her prior 6M unit estimate, propelled primarily by anticipated expansion in external customer sales.
Broadcom’s proprietary TPU units are projected at 4.1M for 2026 and 5.8M for 2027. The company’s Ironwood and Sunfish processors currently stand as the exclusive products ready for customer evaluation phases. MediaTek’s competing Zebrafish chip has yet to enter testing, providing Broadcom with a meaningful timing advantage.
Xia also anticipates continued upward pressure on average selling prices, with Broadcom’s forthcoming Pumafish processor potentially exceeding $20,000 by 2027 due to its enhanced architectural complexity.
Examining the $100B Forecast
The more compelling narrative centers on whether Broadcom’s internal AI revenue projection significantly underestimates future performance.
During the company’s March 4 quarterly earnings conference call, CEO Hock Tan stated Broadcom maintains “line of sight” toward surpassing $100B in AI revenue during 2027. While impressive on its face, several analysts challenged this figure — not to temper expectations, but to argue for higher projections.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon attempted to establish a more granular estimate using gigawatts — representing data center power capacity — as the measurement framework. He tallied Broadcom’s confirmed customer commitments: 3 GW from Anthropic, 1 GW from OpenAI, a minimum of 2 GW from Meta, and at least 3 GW from Google. His calculation arrives at approximately 9–10 GW for 2027.
Tan validated this assessment, acknowledging Broadcom is “seeing it getting close to 10 gigawatts” in 2027.
Rasgon subsequently applied his revenue-per-GW calculation of approximately $20B. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya corroborated this methodology, referencing Broadcom’s 2026 Anthropic implementation — 1 GW projected to generate $20B in revenue.
Using $20B per GW multiplied by 10 GW, the calculation yields a range between $180B and $200B — substantially exceeding the official guidance.
Tan offered no significant objection. He acknowledged that per-GW revenue varies by customer configuration, but conceded the estimate is “not far off.”
Component Supply Secured Through 2028
Broadcom has additionally locked in supplies of cutting-edge wafers, high-bandwidth memory, advanced substrates, and T-glass materials extending through 2028 — one year beyond its current forecasting period.
Melius analyst Ben Reitzes observed that Broadcom was probably the first semiconductor company to secure these critical components with such extended visibility.
The prevailing Wall Street consensus price target for AVGO stands at $435.30, suggesting approximately 36% upside potential from present trading levels, based on data from 33 analyst assessments.
