TLDR
- Brent crude surged to $113.52 per barrel while WTI exceeded $100 amid Trump’s 48-hour deadline for Iran
- President threatens strikes on Iranian electrical infrastructure unless shipping lane reopens; Tehran promises retaliation
- Over 40 energy facilities damaged in nine nations since Middle East hostilities commenced
- IEA declared emergency reserves insufficient, equating crisis to combined 1970s oil shocks
- Goldman Sachs upgraded 2026 Brent projection to $85 per barrel from $77 due to extended disruption expectations
Crude oil markets experienced another surge Monday as investors largely dismissed President Trump’s 48-hour warning to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz reopening.
Brent crude, the global pricing benchmark, advanced 1.2% to settle at $113.52 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the domestic U.S. marker, jumped 2.5% to close at $100.71 per barrel. Brent has experienced a remarkable rise exceeding 50% since coordinated U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran commenced in late February.
The President issued a Saturday statement demanding Iran “fully open” the critical Strait of Hormuz within a 48-hour window or face military strikes targeting its electrical generation facilities. Iranian officials countered with warnings of retaliatory strikes against vital infrastructure throughout the broader Middle East region.
The majority of market experts and industry watchers expressed doubt that Tehran would acquiesce to such demands within the compressed timeframe. “The probability of Iran accepting Trump’s conditions on this expedited schedule under military coercion is exceptionally low,” stated Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context Corp. “Tehran has demonstrated both capability and determination to reciprocate any escalatory measures.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the American military operations target fortified positions surrounding the strait and emphasized Trump’s commitment to “take whatever steps it takes” to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capability.
The Strait of Hormuz serves as the crucial connection between the Persian Gulf and international petroleum markets. Commercial shipping through this vital chokepoint has essentially ceased. Oil producers in the Persian Gulf region have been compelled to store millions of barrels or utilize restricted alternative export pathways.
IEA Issues Warning: Crisis Comparable to Historic Energy Shocks
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, addressed attendees at an Australian conference, characterizing the present disruption as equivalent to both significant 1970s petroleum crises plus the 2022 natural gas shortage following Russia’s Ukraine invasion — “all put together.”
He disclosed that no fewer than 40 energy infrastructure sites have sustained serious damage spanning nine countries since hostilities erupted. Though the IEA is evaluating emergency petroleum reserve releases, Birol emphasized such measures would prove inadequate to address the crisis.
The confrontation has now extended to its 24th day, double the duration of a comparable crisis involving the same nations last year.
Goldman Sachs Elevates Oil Price Projections
Goldman Sachs increased its 2026 crude oil price forecasts Saturday. The investment bank now anticipates Brent averaging $85 per barrel this year, revised upward from its prior $77 estimate. Its WTI projection was similarly elevated to $79 per barrel from $72.
“Flows via Hormuz are now expected to be 5% of normal levels for six weeks, before a gradual recovery,” analysts including Daan Struyven wrote.
They observed that prices will likely continue climbing until markets develop confidence that an extended disruption can be avoided.
Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital, commented: “It will probably take more broader issues with shipping or insurance before prices start moving more aggressively.”
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has cancelled his appearance at the annual CERAWeek conference in Houston, scheduled for this week, where petroleum market dynamics and the ongoing conflict were anticipated to be primary discussion topics.
