TLDR
- Wall Street futures ticked up Monday following three consecutive weekly declines
- Crude surpassed $100 per barrel as Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz intensifies inflationary pressures
- Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting expected to keep rates steady; Chair Powell’s remarks will be closely watched
- Nvidia’s GTC developer event begins Monday with CEO Jensen Huang delivering the opening keynote
- Earnings releases from Micron, FedEx, Dollar Tree, and Alibaba highlight the corporate calendar
Equity futures advanced Monday morning following a challenging stretch for major indexes. Dow Jones futures added 141 points, while S&P 500 futures increased 33 points and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 131 points.
The modest recovery comes after three consecutive weeks of market weakness. Last week saw the S&P 500 decline 1.6%, the Dow Jones slip 2%, and the Nasdaq retreat 1.3%.
Energy markets have been the primary catalyst behind recent volatility. The military conflict involving Iran has entered its third week with no clear resolution in sight.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint located south of Iran, facilitates the transport of approximately 14 million barrels of crude daily. Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces have declared they will prevent even “a liter of oil” from transiting the waterway. This strategic passage accounts for roughly one-fifth of worldwide tanker movements.
Oil momentarily exceeded $100 per barrel last Sunday, marking the first time since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Brent crude advanced 2.7% to $105.90 on Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 2.0% to $98.75.
Over the weekend, President Trump appealed to seven nations for assistance in securing the strategic waterway. He also pressed NATO allies to contribute to reopening efforts. In comments to the Financial Times, Trump warned that inaction “will be a very bad for the future of NATO.”
Trump specifically called out China, suggesting he might cancel the scheduled April meeting with President Xi Jinping unless Beijing applies pressure to restore passage through the strait.
The International Energy Agency announced plans to deploy 411.9 million barrels from strategic reserves to mitigate potential supply disruptions.
Federal Reserve Decision in Focus
The Federal Open Market Committee convenes Wednesday with the benchmark rate currently ranging between 3.5% and 3.75%. Market participants widely anticipate no change to current policy.
Chair Powell’s press briefing following the announcement may prove more significant than the rate decision itself. Internal divisions exist between members concerned about employment data softness and those worried about energy-driven price pressures. This marks Powell’s penultimate scheduled press conference before his chairmanship concludes in May.
Goldman Sachs analysts project that a 60-day closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude to an average of $93 per barrel during the fourth quarter.
Nvidia and Earnings Season
Nvidia’s annual GTC 2026 conference launches Monday with significant anticipation. CEO Jensen Huang is anticipated to introduce a new inference-optimized processor incorporating technology from Groq, the startup Nvidia purchased for $17 billion last December.
Micron Technology delivers quarterly results Wednesday. The memory semiconductor manufacturer’s shares have surged more than fourfold over the past twelve months. Its most recent quarter demonstrated a 60% year-over-year revenue increase.
FedEx announces results Thursday alongside Alibaba. Dollar Tree also reports, providing insight into consumer spending patterns. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng releases earnings Friday.
The February Producer Price Index publishes Wednesday, following January data that revealed wholesale inflation exceeded analyst expectations.
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