TLDR
- USDC commands 64% of adjusted transaction volume market share, surpassing USDT in 2026 year-to-date figures per Mizuho Securities
- First instance of USDC claiming volume leadership since 2019
- Despite volume gains, USDT maintains market capitalization supremacy at $184B versus USDC’s $79B
- Mizuho Securities elevated Circle’s stock price target from $100 to $120
- According to Mizuho, transaction volume rather than market capitalization will determine the ultimate stablecoin leader
In a significant shift within the stablecoin landscape, Circle’s USDC has surpassed Tether’s USDT in adjusted transaction volume for 2026, based on research findings from Mizuho Securities, a prominent Japanese investment banking institution, published Friday, March 13.
The development represents USDC’s first volume leadership position since 2019, breaking USDT’s extended reign in this metric.
According to Mizuho’s comprehensive analysis, USDC processed approximately $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume year-to-date, while USDT recorded $1.3 trillion during the identical timeframe.
This translates to USDC capturing 64% of the combined adjusted volume between these two leading stablecoins, based on Mizuho’s calculations.
Mizuho defined “adjusted volume” as transactions involving centralized trading platforms, decentralized exchange protocols, and identified entities—essentially filtering out transfers from users who haven’t met specific activity benchmarks. The methodology focuses on transfers representing genuine economic movement by actual individuals or organizations.
The analysts cited practical use cases including corporate supplier payments, wagering activities on platforms such as Polymarket, and capital flows between centralized exchanges and DeFi applications.
What the Volume Shift Means
Mizuho’s research team emphasized that transaction volume provides superior predictive value compared to market capitalization when forecasting long-term stablecoin dominance.
“We believe that longer term, the stablecoin winner will be the one mostly used in everyday economic activity, rather than just the highest market cap,” Mizuho wrote.
Tether’s USDT continues to dominate in total market capitalization metrics. The token maintains approximately $184 billion in circulation, substantially outpacing USDC’s $79 billion.
Circle completed its public listing on the New York Stock Exchange during June 2025. The company’s share price experienced minimal fluctuation after Mizuho’s research publication.
As part of the identical research document, Mizuho upgraded its Circle price target from $100 to $120.
Circle Stock and the Regulatory Backdrop
Meanwhile in the nation’s capital, legislative efforts that could fundamentally reshape stablecoin regulation continue to face obstacles.
The CLARITY Act successfully cleared the House of Representatives but encountered resistance in the Senate. Contentious discussions surrounding stablecoin yield mechanisms, ethical governance standards, and tokenized equity securities have impeded legislative momentum.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated Thursday that the upper chamber would prioritize voting requirements legislation ahead of digital asset market structure frameworks. He projected that the market structure legislation would not advance to passage before April.
The legislative gridlock introduces additional ambiguity to the evolving stablecoin regulatory environment as Circle maintains its NYSE trading presence.
Per Mizuho’s March 13, 2026 research publication, USDC currently controls 64% of adjusted volume when compared against its primary stablecoin competitor, marking its first leadership achievement in this category since 2019.
