Key Takeaways
- Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes disclosed HYPE as his investment firm’s top altcoin holding with a $150 valuation target
- The token jumped 11.3% over 24 hours to approximately $35, significantly outpacing Bitcoin’s 3.1% increase
- According to Hayes, Hyperliquid allocates 97% of protocol revenue toward token buybacks from the open market
- Achieving the $150 target requires $1.4 billion in yearly revenue — a benchmark the platform previously achieved in August 2025
- Hayes’ conservative scenario still projects HYPE at approximately $58, representing a 75% premium to current price levels
The native token of Hyperliquid experienced an impressive rally exceeding 11% on Monday following revelations from Arthur Hayes, Maelstrom’s chief investment officer, that HYPE now represents the firm’s most significant altcoin allocation.
In a comprehensive analysis, Hayes unveiled his $150 valuation forecast for HYPE, positioning Hyperliquid as the leading decentralized exchange platform for perpetual futures contracts.
HYPE reached approximately $35 during the previous 24-hour trading window. Meanwhile, Bitcoin posted gains of roughly 3.1% during the identical timeframe, momentarily testing resistance above $70,000 before retracing.
Over the past twelve months, HYPE has delivered returns exceeding 100%. Bitcoin, conversely, has declined nearly 15% during the same stretch. HYPE currently trades more than 40% beneath its record peak of $59, established in September 2025.
Hayes’ Investment Thesis for HYPE
Hayes characterizes Hyperliquid as the highest revenue-producing cryptocurrency protocol excluding stablecoins. He emphasizes that 97% of platform earnings are directed toward purchasing HYPE tokens from secondary markets.
“No other project in all of crypto hands as much money back to token holders as Hyperliquid,” Hayes articulated in his Substack publication.
Reaching his $150 projection demands Hyperliquid expand its 30-day annualized revenue to $1.4 billion — a milestone the exchange previously achieved in August 2025. The forecast also incorporates a market revaluation from approximately 12x earnings to around 25x.
Hayes contends that Hyperliquid doesn’t require broader crypto derivatives market expansion to accomplish this objective. Capturing an additional 3.97 percentage points of market share from centralized platforms would suffice.
HIP-3 Protocol and Emerging Revenue Sources
Hayes highlights HIP-3, Hyperliquid’s permissionless perpetuals creation framework, as a crucial expansion catalyst. Participants who lock 500,000 HYPE tokens can deploy new trading markets utilizing the platform’s infrastructure.
Initial offerings encompass silver, gold, the Nasdaq 100 index, and the S&P 500 index. Hayes reports that HIP-3 trading volumes already contribute nearly 10% of total Hyperliquid revenue within just four months since deployment.
His financial model projects 160% HIP-3 revenue expansion over a six-month horizon. He also identifies HIP-4, a permissionless prediction markets feature, as a potential upside driver excluded from baseline projections.
Addressing token dilution concerns, Hayes observes the development team released approximately 20% of allocated tokens during November and December 2025, subsequently reducing distributions to roughly 1% in January and February 2026.
Under a conservative valuation framework — applying only a 12x earnings multiplier — Hayes calculates HYPE’s fair value at approximately $58. At publication time, HYPE exchanged hands at $33.24.
