TLDR
- The yellow metal climbed 0.9% to $5,232.21 per ounce on Friday, continuing a seven-month rally
- Bernstein analysts raised their outlook to $4,800 in 2026 and $6,100 by decade’s end
- Continued central bank buying and ETF inflows support bullish price predictions
- Tariff uncertainty and Iran nuclear negotiations enhance safe-haven demand
- Mining giant Newmont (NEM) upgraded to Outperform with $157 price target
The precious metal gained 0.9% to close at $5,232.21 per ounce on Friday, extending its winning streak to seven consecutive months. Concurrently, U.S.-based April-delivery futures rose 1.2% to $5,253.20.
Throughout February, the precious metal has gained 6.5%. Over the full seven-month rally period, prices have jumped 58%.
This bullish trajectory stems from investor concerns over unclear tariff policies emanating from Washington and continuing diplomatic discussions between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program.
“Gold is currently supported by two key factors. First is the tariff uncertainty permeating markets, and second is the evolving Iran-U.S. situation,” said Soni Kumari, analyst at ANZ.
The United States rolled out a 10% baseline tariff on imports this Tuesday. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has signaled that rate could climb to 15% for specific countries.
Indirect talks between American and Iranian officials took place in Geneva on Thursday. Oman, serving as intermediary, reported progress was made, with technical discussions planned for Vienna next week.
“These negotiation rounds haven’t produced concrete outcomes yet, keeping geopolitical risks elevated without major escalation,” observed Linh Tran, senior market analyst at XS.com.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped to a three-month low on Friday, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold — a factor that typically benefits precious metal prices.
Bernstein’s Extended Price Forecast
Brokerage firm Bernstein has raised its long-term gold price targets, now expecting $4,800 per ounce in 2026 and $6,100 by 2030.
Analyst Bob Brackett based his projections on a model tracking net central bank purchases and ETF flow patterns, alongside expected impacts from Federal Reserve rate cuts.
While central bank purchases slowed in 2025, they remain significantly above pre-2022 levels. Survey data shows 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to grow over the next year.
ETF holdings have risen markedly since mid-2024. Brackett described ETFs as a “swing” factor — capable of amplifying price action when investment flows intensify.
Market expectations currently price in two to three Fed rate cuts in 2026. Brackett noted that gold has historically risen an average of 6.53% in the twelve months following rate cuts, suggesting potential cumulative gains of approximately 13% from monetary policy easing alone.
Newmont Upgrade
Bernstein also upgraded mining major Newmont (NEM) to Outperform, setting a $157 price target. The firm increased its EBITDA forecast for the miner by 26% to $21.9 billion, driven by its improved gold price expectations.
NEM stock rose 2.33% in Friday trading.
In other precious metals activity, silver spot prices jumped 4.4% to $92.20 per ounce, heading for a 6.2% monthly gain. Platinum spot prices surged 5.3% to a four-week high of $2,393.80, while palladium rose 1.5% to $1,810.60.
