TLDR
- The precious metal advanced 0.9% to reach $5,232.21 per ounce Friday, extending its winning streak to seven months
- Investment firm Bernstein projected gold will reach $4,800 in 2026 and $6,100 by decade’s end
- Robust central bank purchasing and exchange-traded fund accumulation underpin the optimistic forecast
- Trade policy ambiguity and Middle East diplomatic tensions are boosting safe-haven appetite
- Bernstein elevated Newmont (NEM) to Outperform with a $157 share price objective
The yellow metal posted a 0.9% advance to $5,232.21 per ounce Friday, positioning it for a seventh straight monthly increase. April-delivery U.S. gold futures contracts jumped 1.2% to reach $5,253.20.
February alone has witnessed a 6.5% appreciation in gold prices. Across the past seven months, the precious metal has surged 58%.
The upward momentum reflects market participants’ concerns regarding ambiguous U.S. trade policy and diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran concerning Iran’s nuclear development program.
“Gold is receiving support from two primary sources. The first involves the prevailing tariff ambiguity affecting markets currently, while the second relates to the evolving U.S.-Iran dynamic,” explained Soni Kumari, an analyst with ANZ.
Washington began implementing a 10% universal import levy on Tuesday. That baseline rate faces potential elevation to 15% for certain nations, according to statements from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
American and Iranian representatives engaged in indirect diplomatic discussions in Geneva on Thursday. An Omani intermediary indicated constructive developments, with technical-level meetings scheduled for Vienna next week.
“Recent negotiation rounds haven’t yielded definitive results, maintaining geopolitical risk factors without immediate escalation,” noted Linh Tran, a senior market analyst at XS.com.
U.S. 10-year Treasury note yields fell to their lowest level in three months Friday, diminishing the opportunity cost associated with holding gold, which generates no income — a favorable condition the metal has previously leveraged.
Bernstein’s Long-Term Outlook
Investment research firm Bernstein elevated its extended-term gold price projections, now anticipating $4,800 per ounce in 2026 and $6,100 by the decade’s conclusion.
Analyst Bob Brackett constructed the projection using a methodology emphasizing net central bank accumulation and ETF capital movements, combined with anticipated Federal Reserve rate reduction effects.
Central bank acquisitions decelerated in 2025 yet remain significantly elevated compared to pre-2022 benchmarks. Survey information indicates 95% of central banking institutions anticipate worldwide gold reserve expansion throughout the coming year.
ETF positions have increased substantially since the middle of 2024. Brackett characterized ETFs as a “swing” component — capable of magnifying price movements when capital inflows accelerate.
Market pricing currently incorporates two to three Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2026. Brackett observed that gold has historically appreciated an average of 6.53% during the twelve-month periods following rate cuts, suggesting potential aggregate returns approaching 13% from monetary policy easing alone.
Newmont Upgrade
Bernstein additionally elevated Newmont (NEM) to Outperform status, establishing a share price objective of $157. The research house increased its EBITDA projection for the mining company by 26% to $21.9 billion, reflecting its updated gold price assumptions.
NEM shares advanced 2.33% during the session.
Across the broader precious metals complex, spot silver jumped 4.4% to $92.20 per ounce, positioned for a 6.2% monthly advance. Spot platinum surged 5.3% to a four-week peak of $2,393.80, while palladium added 1.5% to reach $1,810.60.
