TLDR
- JPMorgan reduced Tempus AI’s price target to $60 from $80, holding a “neutral” stance
- Fourth-quarter revenue surged 83% compared to last year, reaching $367.2 million and surpassing forecasts
- Management projects approximately $1.59B in revenue for 2026, representing roughly 25% expansion
- Company insiders offloaded approximately 596,035 shares valued at roughly $37.5M during the last 90 days
- Several analysts maintained Buy recommendations, with consensus price target averaging $80.92
Shares of Tempus AI (TEM) declined Wednesday following JPMorgan Chase’s decision to reduce its price objective from $80 down to $60, while maintaining its “neutral” stance. This revised target represents potential upside of approximately 10.85% based on recent trading levels.
TEM shares retreated $3.82 to close at $54.13 in Wednesday trading, with volume reaching 6.6 million shares — surpassing the typical daily average of 5.7 million.
JPMorgan wasn’t alone in revising expectations. Stifel similarly reduced its price objective from $85 down to $60, maintaining a “Hold” stance. The firm acknowledged that revenue figures aligned with previously announced results and highlighted the company’s strong positioning in the oncology space, though concerns about profitability metrics prompted the adjustment.
BTIG reduced its price objective from $105 to $90 while maintaining its “buy” recommendation. HC Wainwright adjusted from $98 to $89, also retaining a “buy” rating. The consensus price target among all covering analysts currently averages $80.92, with eight firms rating the stock as a buy, five at hold, and one recommending sell.
Some analysts remain bullish. Mizuho initiated coverage on February 19 with an “outperform” designation and a $100 price objective. Kyle Mikson at Canaccord Genuity maintained his “buy” recommendation with an $80 target, highlighting robust revenue momentum and growing pharmaceutical sector demand. Needham also reaffirmed its “buy” rating with a $75 target.
Q4 Results Beat, but Profitability Clouded the Picture
Tempus AI delivered Q4 revenue of $367.2 million, representing an 83% year-over-year increase and exceeding analyst projections. The company reported an adjusted loss of $0.04 per share, significantly outperforming the consensus estimate of a $0.20 loss.
Diagnostics revenue drove performance, reaching $266.9 million — representing 121.6% growth year-over-year. Oncology testing volumes increased 29% while Hereditary testing volumes expanded 23%. Data and Applications revenue contributed $100.4 million, up 25.1%.
Despite these strong metrics, shares declined more than 3% in extended trading after the earnings release. Market participants focused on the absence of a definitive timeline for achieving full-year profitability and 2026 revenue guidance of approximately $1.59B that failed to significantly exceed Street expectations.
The company recorded negative EBITDA of $150.55 million over the trailing twelve months. Wall Street analysts don’t anticipate profitability arriving in 2026.
Insider Selling Raises Eyebrows
Insider transaction activity has been substantial. During the past 90 days, company insiders disposed of 596,035 shares valued at approximately $37.5 million.
EVP Andrew Polovin sold 10,949 shares on February 20 at an average price of $60.31, totaling $660,334. CEO Ryan Fukushima divested 9,592 shares on February 19 at $59.05, generating proceeds of $566,407. Company insiders continue to control 26.27% of outstanding shares.
Institutional investors and hedge funds collectively own 24.22% of TEM. Multiple smaller investment firms established new stakes during Q3 and Q4, though position sizes remained relatively limited.
The stock’s 52-week trading range spans from $36.22 to $104.32. The 50-day moving average stands at $61.92 while the 200-day moving average is positioned at $73.59. Current market capitalization totals $9.63 billion, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.45 and beta of 5.22.
Stifel indicated continued interest in TEM at present price levels, observing that it trades at a valuation discount compared to oncology diagnostics sector peers, although InvestingPro identifies the stock as overvalued relative to calculated fair value.
